Tuesday, March 27, 2007

 

India stock market update 27 March 2007

The Indian stock market has been meandering for a few days now; and there is a lot of thought about what a future course of action could be. There is prominent Guru Marc Faber of the Gloom and Doom report reports that he expects the Indian stock market to decline, and for the US market to actually out-perform the Indian stock market. There are a couple of points that make me unsure whether this is a realistic portrayal.

1. Indian industry is still growing at a good clip; and after a few murmurs after the Budget, almost everybody has quietened down.
2. There has been a lot of buzz about liquidity drying out, but a lot of this liquidity is supposed to have been sucked out of the system due to interest rates increase in Japan. These interest rates hike in Japan and the US will be reduced if the Central Banks start feeling that the economy is again slowing down. This is a cyclical process. In fact, hedge fund money is starting to find its way in India, and this is a lot of high-risk money, which means that it can quickly come in and out.
3. Over time, it seems that the rate of investment in equity (even through Mutual Funds) is slowly starting to rise, and this augurs well for the market.

I am still cautiously optimistic about the Indian stock market, and have steadily been investing for the last 1 month, taking a risk that I can think will pay off this year.

Stocks that I am currently tracking:

1. India Cements: Rs. 163
2. Nirlon: Rs. 52 (more risky)
3. Yes Bank: Rs. 146
4. Bajaj Auto: Rs. 2,525
5. Reliance Capital: Rs. 662

Labels: , ,




To be updated when a new post is made, click on the icon Site Feed Site Feed




Thursday, March 22, 2007

 

India stock market update 22 March 2007

For a fair amount of time, the Indian stock market sensex has been hovering in the 12000-13000 range, some days advancing and other days falling down. However, in the past 3-4 days, there has been a rally and the sensex has crossed the 13,000 level. In fact today, the sensex climbed by around 350 points. This increase though is accompanied by low volumes, and there has not been a corresponding increase in the mid-cap and small-cap indexes. This is consistent with past behaviour where large-caps get investor fancy, and then as the bullish feeling spreads, mid-caps and small-caps start getting investor interest.
Mutual funds have been a major disappointment for the past 1 year. If I compare NAV's from before the May 2006 crash with current values, they are roughly the same or even lower; this was actually more of a shock because the selling point about MF's is that they are run by experts; however, if they flat-line in times of stress, where is the expertise ?

Current stocks that I am tracking:

1. Atlas Copco - Rs. 729
2. Reliance Capital - Rs. 653
3. Tata Elxi - Rs. 285
4. Trigyn Tech - Rs. 27.80
5. Allianz Securities - Rs. 55.50

Labels: , , ,




To be updated when a new post is made, click on the icon Site Feed Site Feed




Thursday, March 15, 2007

 

Indian stock market update 15 March 2007

Why would people need to go to the amusement park ? All they need to do is be invested in the stock market. There are times of elation, when a stock you just bought jumps by 10%, times when the swings in the market make you think about a roller-coaster, and then there is the fear when you see the market opening by 400 point down, the same when the roller-coaster is dropping after being at the highest point.
I am a believe in the Indian story, so am investing in the market. However, after reading a fair amount about how much the liquidity story (global) fractionally gettting pumped into the Indian market is pushing up the market, there is some doubt that I have started having. Are we truly at the end of a boom phase, and will the Indian market be very disappointing ?
Something that has truly disappointed is the 1-year peformance of the mutual funds. These are supposed to be experts in the market, and yet so many of these funds are approx at the same NAV as they were last year. I might as well have remained in the primary market. So today, for the first time, I sold 2 of my mutual funds, the SMILE fund from Sundaram, and the SBI Emerging Business Fund. Till now, I have looked at the mutual funds as a sort of additional retirement scheme, I will keep on investing money in mutual funds as a percentage of total investment, and this should become a lump sum when I retire.
Some of the stocks that I have bought in the last few days have been Nirlon, Allianz Sec, Era Con, Mahindra Gesco, Ashiana Housing, and a couple of other construction and engineering stocks.

Labels: , , , ,




To be updated when a new post is made, click on the icon Site Feed Site Feed




Thursday, March 08, 2007

 

India stock market update 9 March 2007

The Indian stock market has really been moving. An under-statement if there was one. Some major global events seem to have shaken the market to the core. Issues about the Yen easy availability, Chinese market crashing by 9% on one day, and an overall global weakening pushed the Sensex down, giving the familiar sinking feeling of a crash. In addition, the Budget did not exactly promise anything great.

I am however not so negative about the budget, and was looking at the positives. Fiscal reform in terms of deficit targets have been met, and about the budget promising incentives, we should be moving away from a stage where budgets decide the growth of the economy in terms of micro measures. Instead, the budget should just set the macro perspective. If we look at most developed economies, the budgets are more a funds allocation exercise to different programs and ministries.

As long as the government does not muck up the overall economic climate, I believe in India being a growth story, and will remain allocated to the Indian equity story.

Stocks that I am currently tracking:

1. Nirlon - Rs. 50 (risky)
2. Hindustan Construction - Rs. 100
3. Hinduja TMT - Rs. 510
4. Allianz Securities - Rs. 59
5. Aro Granite - Rs. 84
6. IFCI - Rs. 25
7. Bharti Tele - Rs. 749

Labels: , ,




To be updated when a new post is made, click on the icon Site Feed Site Feed




Thursday, March 01, 2007

 

Stock update 01 March 2007

A crash, that too a fairly major one (neglecting the small crashes that have happened in the previous few months). The market has been falling, falling from 14000 + to below 13000, only recovering today to close above the 13000 level. What sort of strategies can one employ in such a market. One thing is for sure, when there is a sudden fall, a lot of people start claiming that this crash is the one, that the market is not able to find its feet.
What do I believe ? That right now sentiment is that the market was over-heated and that this pullback will bring it down to a lower level. In the midst of all the gloom and doom over how the budget was, I did not find it particularly bad. I was interested in seeing whether fiscal discipline was being maintained and that seems to be on target. This is very important as it gives a clear picture about what is the current state of the country's finances and the level of risk. If risk level is reduced, then Indian companies will find it easier to get loans, which is great for a country where companies are starting to buy more assets outside.
What has been my policy over the past few days ? I am looking at this fall as an opportunity and have been buying the following stocks: Trigyn Tech, Reliance, Era Constructions, Ashiana Housing, Walchandnagar.
I believe that India is continuing into a prolonged growth phase, and stocks are bound to go up again.

Labels: , , ,




To be updated when a new post is made, click on the icon Site Feed Site Feed


This page is powered by Blogger. Isn't yours?