Tuesday, September 29, 2009


Recommendations for the Indian stock market as of 29 Sept 2009

We are approaching a stage where the market is seemingly over-heated. Quite a few mid-caps have shows levels that are 3-4 times what they were just a few months back, and even with improvements in the overall market, there is a sense of uneasiness. I was speaking to somebody who does deals (M&A), and he was of the opinion that this resurgence has already gone to promoters head, they are back to asking for high rates for their companies capital that was seen before the melt-down, and this was substantiated by a report in the Economic Times that claimed that deal makers are headed off to China rather than India since they do not see too many deals happening in India.
The US economic data seems better, but there are blips when the economic data seems to suggest that one needs to watch signs of recovery carefully, and not assume that everything will go fine. What this translates into for the retail investor is that you should be careful, do not start to again assume that stocks will only go up. If you have made a lot of profit, then remove some of that profit and put into safer instruments, and use the remainder to play in the market. One thing we learnt from last time is that there is no easily defined floor below which the market would not fall - it kept on falling for many months, and retail investors kept on waiting.
Stock that I am current tracking (or buying):
1. Rishi Lasers
2. KLG Systel
3. Supreme Industries
4. Patel Airtemp
5. Nilkamal
6. VST Tillers
7. Reliance (long term)

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Thursday, September 24, 2009


Indian stock market update as of 25 September 2009

Overall, there is a mood of optimism. Even though exports have been falling, there is a feeling that it is only a matter of time for the market and the economy to be a upward trend. The plentiful rainfall of the past few weeks has reduced the rain shortfall this year to a much lower level, decreasing the potential problem caused by drought and lower drop output.
The Index of Industrial Production has gone up slightly, realty and consumer goods are starting to pick up, and so on. At the same time, the market has jumped to good heights in the last few months, and there is an over-whelming feeling that the market may be due for a correction, with a contra statement that times are going to be better, and the market is just factoring that in. At these times of high, it is good to get rid of junk and penny stocks.
Stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. Divis Laboratories (more stable, long term)
2. Jaihind Projects (more risky)
3. Nirlon (risky)
4. Unity Infra (risky)
5. Rishi Laser (long term)
6. Godrej Industries (short term)
7. Asahi India Glass

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Sunday, September 13, 2009


Indian stock market recommendations as of 13 September 2009

If you look at what analysts are recommending (that is, if you believe what analysts have to say after the events of the past few months), then the recommendations are never simple. The overall market situation remains complex:
- The rainfall over the past few weeks has reduced the overall rainfall deficit for the year drastically, as a result, the Government is now feeling a lower negative impact on overall growth
- The market has gained over the past few months, to the extent that there is a feeling that the market is now over-heated and a correction is now impending. If you read economic and equity stories, you will hear about how stock are now seen as expensive, and that fund managers are feeling pressure to invest else they will feel left behind, even though they feel stocks are now expensive
- The overall world economy seems to have stabilised and seems to be on the road to recovery, and this has been stated by many top economists and others (even if some of them are trying to make optimistic projections, there is a touch of reality)
- In India, the IPO market has suffered a setback because 2 recent issues of Adani Power and NHPC did not leave any value for investors, and hence the stock is already below the issue price. At the same time, there are huge institutional investments into IPO's, signifying that money is available to invest.
With all this information, what should the retail investor do ? This is really not the time to take too much risk, so be careful about bringing fresh money into the equity market. I, am going to keep evaluating certain stocks to see whether there is potential to invest in these stocks, and also trying to sell a portion of other stocks that have jumped a lot.
1. Nirlon: This is a risky stock. If the market goes down, this stock also goes down. However, if the realty sector and commercial rents pick up, then Nirlon is a good stock to own.
2. Ashiana Housing. Another realty company. The company share has been oscillating for the past few days, and I am looking to own these shares for atleast a period of 1-3 years, and hence am picking up shares on a gradual basis.
3. Mawana Sugar. In India, sugar is a difficult area right now, with sugar being in shortfall and overseas price high because of expectations of imports by India.
4. Cairns. It's oil wells in Rajasthan have started producing oil, and on the back of a global recovery, there is an expectation that oil prices will start increasing to ever higher levels.
5. Sharyans resources. The company's share took a major hit with the economic downturn, but now looks to be again regaining hope.

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Tuesday, September 01, 2009


India stock market recommendations as of 1 September 2009

For the last couple of days, the Indian stock market has not been reacting as one would have liked. After a good upward move on mid-cap stocks in the past few weeks, there has been a small correction in the last 2-3 days, with the market falling around 100-200 points per day. One can hope that this is just a consolidation phase. The overall trend for the future in terms of growth looks impressive, with GDP growth being higher than in previous quarters, although one has to worry about what the failure of the monsoon means for the country.
Mid-caps seem to be again the flavour of the season, and some of my mid-caps (risky ones though) have gained a bit in the last one month, atleast 15-30%, which is good growth. These are across sectors. Some of these stocks are:
Nirlon- This is a real estate story, with the company having developed some good commercial real estate, and if commercial rents pick up, then the company has a good story on its hands.
Ashiana Housing - the revival of the realty story means that well regarded companies do well, and Ashiana Housing is one of these companies. The company has gained from a low of 45 to currently 62.
Hindustan Constructions - The company has yet to gain significantly, but I am cautious about the long term prospects of the company.
JMC Projects - The company is doing well, and is a well regarded small player in the construction / engineering area
KLG Systel - The company has seen a massive fall in its valuations since January 2008, but is now on the recovery path, having increased to 2.5 times its value of last October. It is a well regarded provider of solutions to the Government.

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