Saturday, July 28, 2007


India stock market update 29 June 2007

The US market sneezed, and the rest of the world had a cold. Over Thursday and Friday, the US Down Jones and NASDAQ both had big falls, due to a combination of bad results, and fears that the mortgage crisis will take its toll on overall credit. Credit is the most important reason for the stock rise in the Indian market, Chinese market and numerous other developing markets. If the investments by FII's show any sign of collapsing, then things can get sticky for the Indian market. Indian FI's can be very hesitant, given that their base is Indian investors, who get very skittish when the market becomes volatile.
Overall, with a 540 point drop in the Indian sensex, things suddenly turned red after a decent upturn for the past 2 weeks. Things are somewhat scary now, although there is one good news that Indian companies overall gave a good earnings report. So, unless there is a major credit problem or liquidity crunch, the market will overall keep on gaining. So, keep a watch on stocks, sell the ones that seem to have gone up tremendously without a corresponding gain in fundamentals, and overall be watchful. Keep a SIP to invest part of the money in Mutual Funds, and also, for safety's sake, use these times of high interest to get some good Fixed Deposits.
Some stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. Era Constructions: Rs. 532
2. Ion Exchange: Rs. 162
3. JMC Projects: Rs. 285
4. Trigyn Tech: Rs. 31
5. Nirlon: Rs. 70.50

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Sunday, July 22, 2007


India stock market update 22 July 2007

The stock market shows no sign of letting up, driven by a global liquidity charge and further driven by the promise of a continued high growth rate. So, even though we see corrections, the market remains on the promise of a continued growth, to reach 16,000 sometime this year. However, with the volatility of the market being what it is, a correction can happen anytime. The big question is about the extent of the correction. If it is a small correction of some few hundreds, then it will be shrugged off. However, we have seen in the past that slightly major corrections see analysts jump on the doom and gloom platform and quickly target 3000-4000 point corrections.
What am I doing ? I am reviewing my stocks to identify those that are slightly junk, or not based on fundamentals and liquidate them. I am also encouraging family members to diversify funds towards fixed deposits, getting 10% is not such a bad deal for some amount of money. Also putting money in my regular Mutual Funds such as HDFC Prudence, Franklin Flexicap, SBI Magnum, SBI Taxgain, and Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund.
Am I putting fresh money into the market? Yes, I am. I have a long term belief in the market, and as long as I am convinced in the fundamentals of the stocks that I am investing in, then I will continue to put money. I was reading some more about Reliance's quest for further oil and gas in the blocks that it holds for exploration, and it may make sense to continue investing in Reliance for the long term. The problem with Reliance is that it is very difficult to think in terms of selling the stock.
Stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. GSFC: Rs. 205
2. Era Constructions: Rs. 540 (with some care)
3. Schrader Duncan (ICICI Direct code SSDUNC): Rs. 309
4. Garnet Constructions: Rs. 58
5. Voltas: Rs. 150

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Saturday, July 14, 2007


India Stock Market Update 14 July 2007

The market is now at all-time highs. The news by Infosys about the effect due to a declining dollar on its margins as well as the guidance failed to shake the market. It's not only the India effect which is guiding the market to all-time highs. It is also the massive liquidity available that is pumping the market to these new levels.
The problem with such levels is that the market tends to be very volatile; so for example, in previous jumps we have seen that the jump could be just in large caps and the midcaps remain where they are; or in the current case where large caps (and market movers) such as Infosys and Reliance have not moved much, most of the action being in engineering and real estate companies (part of mid-caps).
Be very careful at such levels. I am trying to ensure that shares I have bought earlier for speculation and that have jumped a lot are slowly getting sold so that if a fall comes, I am more invested in fundamentally safe companies that will fall less. It is a certain bet that if a fall comes, shares in junk companies fall so fast that investors don't know what hit them.
Some stocks that I am tracking are: (most of these are long term)
1. Yes Bank: Rs. 183
2. Adhunik Metaliks: Rs. 63
3. Bartronics Ltd: Rs. 163
4. Ion Exchange: Rs. 146
5. IVRCL Infrastructure: Rs. 421

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Sunday, July 01, 2007


India Stock Market Update 02 July 2007

So finally the stock market has beaten the previous doom-sayers and crashes, and reached it's all time high, crossing the previous level of 14723. Now, a lot of retail investors are afraid to enter the market, worrying about a crash. I want to liquidate some of the stock that has not moved much over the past few weeks or months, so am going to be selling some stock such as ITC (I know, long term, but in one of holding, it has not moved), Accel Frontline (a promise stock, but somehow not getting a good feeling). Maybe it is time to also move some more profits to Mutual Funds (my favourties being SBI Magnum, Franklin Flexi-cap, and Reliance Equity Opportunities Fund - although I am open to more if somebody can suggest some good sector specific or diversified funds).
IFCI has been a good buy, having bought at 30 a few months back, and now has climbed to almost double that, with potential of going higher due to news of it planning to sell a stake at a higher price. Overall, market seems to be looking good, with good integration of Domestic and International Mutual Funds. On the policy side, the Government keeps on making right noises about reform, although whether we will see some good moves is uncertain, what with the left being a roadblock.
Looking to carefully evaluate cement stocks, they seem to be making a move upwards. Am also evaluating stocks that are 'green', that is, stocks that can make a benefit from the demands of overcoming global warming.
Stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. Yes Bank: Rs. 180
2. Praj Industries: Rs. 480
3. Reliance Industries: Rs. 1680
4. Reliance Petro: Rs. 114
5. Era Constructions: Rs. 395

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