Thursday, September 23, 2010

 

India stock market update as of 23 September 2010

As predicted, the Indian stock market is becoming much more volatile. In the last couple of days, we have seen the usual conditions of volatility such as the large cap going up, while the middle caps have been extremely volatile. The Reserve Bank is predicting some increase in inflation, and hence has raised some of its rates by a small amount.
For the last many weeks, most retail investors have actually tried to increase their cash levels by selling out those scripts where there is a profit, and trying to stay on the sidelines in this volatility. This is what is recommended to most investors, unless they are confident of their involvement in the market, and about the script they are holding and can take the losses that may occur. At the same time, there is news about sugar scripts that may be worth buying, given some losses in sugar crops and a potential hardening of the prices.
Some scripts that I am actively tracking:
Voltas
United Phosphorus
Jyoti Limited
Punjab Woolcomber
Ponni Sugar

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

 

Indian stock market update as of 16 September 2010

The Indian stock market is getting very volatile nowadays. It reminds me of the days near January 2008 when the market was very volatile, with the Sensex going up by large numbers or falling, but with most stocks remaining where they were or sometimes even falling. There is still money to be made in specific scripts, but it is a high risk / high gain approach. If there is a fall due to liquidity inflow into the system being reduced, then even scripts that seem safe can fall pretty fast (we have seen the effect of what a reduction in liquidity and bad sentiment can do to all stocks in the multiple falls that happened in 2008). Right now, DII's (domestic financial institutions are selling) while FII's are pumping in money; but this inflow is always volatile. Every expert says a couple of things - India has a good economic growth ongoing, and Indian stocks are expensive. The possibility of a small sharp correction is pretty high right now, so be careful about the stocks that you are going in for.
There are positive news for the medium and long term - the figures for industrial growth were higher than expected, which means that Indian industry will pick up; at the same time, there will be a need for more credit and working capital, as a result, most predictions are that the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates to head off the expected increase in inflation.
Some stocks that I am currently tracking:
Reliance Industries - the stock remains a safe bet, and has shrugged off some recent weakness where there were predictions that the stock could fall to 600 levels
Uflex - the stock has run up sharply in the last couple of months, but the company remains a fundamentally good company in a good sector
Kirloskar Pneumatics - Run up a bit in the last 1 month
Rajesh Exports - Looking good technically
Rama Newsprint - A turnaround story
Shanti Gears
Cosmo Films

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Wednesday, September 08, 2010

 

Indian stock market update as of 08 September 2010

The market has been oscillating a bit in the past few weeks. After doing increases in the past few months, there is a lot of speculation that the market is over-heated, and it is only the inflowing liquidity that is causing the market to go up. At the same time, the Government and the economy are all giving positive signals for the overall condition of the economy, which boosts sentiment (although it must be admitted that all the sentiment is overall feeling that a crash is imminent and is healthy for the market).
The US economy seems to be taking a slight up for the better, and that is a good sign overall. The Indian economy needs to hear that the talk of a double-dip recession is not going to happen, and that things will remain good and that the Indian economy will continue to have a good rate of growth. If this continues, there will be periodic dips in the market but the overall trend will be positive, which is what the stock investors of the country need.
Some stocks that I am tracking:
Action Construction Equipment
Ashhiana Housing
Jindal Poly (has gone up hugely in the last few weeks, but some scope still remaining)
Rama Newsprint (more long term)
Talwarkars
Western India Shipyards

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