Wednesday, November 29, 2006


Market tracks on 29 November 2006

Today was just another day on the Indian stock exchanges. The market finally closed positive, but not by much, only 14 points for the Sensex. Trade was volatile, but as we have seen over the past 1-2 years, there is nothing new in that. The market normally is volatile nowadays, and so today was another similar day.
Have started hearing that cement stocks are on the upswing, but will wait a bit to see whether that is likely. Sugar stucks continue to be in the dumps; wondering whether it is time to be contrarian and pick up a few of the better managed sugar stocks. Still waiting for hotel stocks to reflect the incredible occupancy rates for hotels.
Stocks that I am tracking:

Lotus Chocolates: Rs. 7.4
GE Capitall: Rs. 147
Aro Granite: Rs. 107
Celebrity Fashion: Rs. 120
Mukand Engineering: Rs. 31.8
Fortis Financial: Rs. 74.2
First Leasing: Rs. 44
Gayatri Projects: Rs. 337
Hikal Chemical: Rs. 395

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Sunday, November 26, 2006


Stock Update as on 26 Nov 2006

There are plenty of articles nowadays about the retail investors starting to come back into the Indian seconday equity market, the ones who were badly scarred after the May 2006 crash. These sort of news scares me to some extent, because I believe that this is a double edged sword. It is widely believed that the Indian investing public invests a very insignificant portion of their savings into the stock market, the belief being that if this level of investment in the market grows, then the Indian market will see a true explosion. On the other hand, it is also true that when investing in the market becomes a buzz and your office boy starts talking about it, then the market is going to crash. We seem to be seeing both things happen, and I am hoping that we may have corrections, but no crash. Am not sure that my heart is strong enough to bear 3 horrible stock market crashes in 2 years.

Stocks that I tracking currently:

1. Taj GVK: Rs. 219
2. NCL Ind: Rs. 50
3. India Cements: Rs 230
4. Bartronics India: Rs. 106
5. Praj Industries: Rs 191
6. Gateway Distriparks: Rs 186
7. Cable Corporation: Rs 3.76 (careful)
8. Shree Ram Mills: Rs. 490
9. Sadbhav Engineering: Rs. 440

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Wednesday, November 22, 2006


Stock update Nov 22 2006

The markets are moving steadily. The last few days would have given a shock to most market players, especially because the Sensex suffered drops. The sensex did not fall as much, but the drop in the price of the mid-caps was much higher. This has always been perplexing to the holders of mid-caps. It always seems to be that mid-caps move up much slower than the sensex (atleast since the crash earlier this year), but when there is a sudden downfall, the fall in mid-caps is more than in the sensex.
This actually is pretty logical if one thinks about it. In the beginning, when the sensex is rising, people are more inclined to safer and known stock such as the sensex stocks. It is only when the rally continues for some time do people start to take more adventures and move towards mid-caps that are riskier. If the rally continues, mid-caps start gaining more than the sensex and that is when you start seeing all the buzz around mid-caps. When the sensex falls, and it is a rapid fall, people want to conserve the money they have made. In such a case, they will dump their riskier stocks first, and hence mid-caps are dumped more easier. This is even more pronounced when people have seen the major crashes that happened in the last 1-2 years.
Stocks being tracked this day:
Valecha Engineering - Rs. 211
Walchandnagar Industries - Rs. 878
Thermax - Rs. 376
International Combustion - Rs. 299
Oriental Hotels - Rs. 401
Nava Bharat Ventures - Rs. 128
Bharti Airtel Limited - Rs. 637
Century Textiles - Rs. 638
Uni Abex Alloy - Rs. 107
Indian Hume Pipe - Rs. 347

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Thursday, November 16, 2006


Indian Market 16 Nov 2006

The Indian stock market seems to be going towards higher and higher targets. It has already hit the 13500 target, and is seemingly very dizzy. There are not so many people at this time who are doing the doom and gloom part, in fact, most analysts tout the good earnings, Indian growth story as reasons for the stock continuing to jump high.
This is time when I start to worry about a correction. It is when things are going so high that people start to worry about whether this will last and think that maybe this is a good time to book profits, and when this starts to happen at FI and FII level, the market starts tanking.
Anyhow, here are some of shares (recommended by others) that I am tracking, but it is time to be much more careful about sinking in fresh money. Next time, I will also review performance of some of the shares that I have mentioned as tracking earlier.
1. Excel Ind - 53
2. Tata Elxi - 263
3. Prime Textiles - 142
4. Century Textiles - 610
5. Birla Corporation - 352
6. Country Club - 351

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Tuesday, November 07, 2006


Pantaloon at life time high

No matter how much time I spend in the Indian stock market, there are some price movements that always leave me puzzled. For example, today Pantaloon Retail touched a life time high of Rs. 2180. This is a tremendous high for the company, and coming so soon after Reliance Retail started execution of its mega plans, it did not make sense to me. However, there is a sense that the retail market is headed for big times and will partake of the growth in the Indian economy for many years to come.

It's current P/E is above 87, which is extremely high. Getting into such a stock is risky. There is tremendous potential for growth, but there is liable to be heavy competition including people with extremely deep pockets. In such a scenario, it may take time to grow. 87 means that the company will have to grow at very high rates for a number of years. How achievable is this ?

Now, onto the Indian stocks that I am tracking. How is it possible that I track so many stocks every day. Well, I try to track atleast some of these, and putting them in this blog means that I can refer these stocks from wherever I may be located. I am also exploring a way to put some kind of portfolio tracker in the web page itself that will show the stocks from the day that I mentioned them.

1. TTK healthcare - 102

2. Leela Hotels - 64.75

3. Span Diagnostic - 63.65

4. Mahindra Gesco - 804

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Monday, November 06, 2006


Stock tracking 06 November 2006

More stocks that I am tracking. I can mention some of the reasons, but the reasons can be pretty voluminous and I don't think that it matters to me. I only put a stock on this page when I think that there is some amount of upside possible.

I think that it will make more sense for me to give the price of the stock when I mention that I am tracking it, so that it becomes more clear later whether there has been any upside:

1. Godawari Power - 105

2. Aptech Ltd - 158

3. Monsanto India - 1575

4. Voltas - 106

5. Era Constructions - 440

6. Yes Bank - 113

7. Zensar - 243

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Sunday, November 05, 2006


More stocks to track

Based on some of the emails that I read, there are quite a few additional stocks in the Indian stock market that I am tracking. For example, BSES (Reliance Energy) is moving up slowly in the last few days. It can be taken note of. ITC is one stock that has remained fairly stable for the last few months, but I would like to remain in this company for the long term. I believe that along with Infosys and Reliance, ITC is another stock that I will liquidate only in a grave financial emergency.

Some other smaller stocks that I am tracking are BASF, NPR Finance, Austin Engg, Ambika Cotton, Steelcast, Hester Pharma, GKW, BL Kashyap, Zenith Fibre. I am go in for buying some of these stocks after reading some more opinions and taking a look at how its performance is doing.

Hotel stocks have finally started moving up, it is not so big even now, but prices are higher from the last time that I talked about this.

HFCL is one stock that I remain very cautious about. It seems to have given a good performance, but I have been burned by this stock twice in the past, and I am not too confident about its management and its ability to hold its own. Maybe better to invest in other stocks that are safer.

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Friday, November 03, 2006


Indian midcap market - on the rise

Ever since the May crash of the Indian stock market, a lot of the mid-caps crashed and remained down for a significant period of time. I held stocks from different categories, with some examples being Ansal Housing, Era Constructions, IVRCL, KLG Systel, Noida Toll, TRF, Atlas Copco, KCP Ltd, etc.

These are all recovering and advancing now. They are still far away from the May highs, but many of them are upto 100% higher than the slump that they had fallen to. So it seems like my policy of staying firm with these shares seems to be working for now. All the recent trends that I have read seem to indicate that the interest in mid-caps seems to be picking up, and there is scope for an increase in mid-cap prices.

The situation is such that even if I sold, what would I buy. There does not seem too many new things that you can be totally confident of buying at such peak levels. However, a couple of scripts that I am tracking based on some stuff that I have read are: Nicco corporation (turnaround), Shasun chemical, Zenith fibre, Cable Corporation, Walchand.

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