Struggle to make money from stocks

So what happens next in the Indian stock market ? There are different predictions about what the future holds for the Indian stock market, but the different predictions are more about the short term. There are different indicators on whether for the short term, the markets have climbed up to a bubble level, or whether there are indeed reasons for such a jump. It is predicted that part of the growth in the US (the so called green shoots) have been over-inflated, and that growth in the US right now is nebulous, with it being a jobless recovery.
For the middle and long term however, things are much more positive, with the overall global economy having seen an uptick, and both India and China looking much more positive. India seems to have overcome the worry of a failed monsoon, although it is likely to impact Government policies in terms of foodstocks and its food imports. So what are the stocks to be watched out ?
1. Mahindra Ugine Steel Company Ltd (good for the medium and long term, but needs patience)
2. Ashiaana Housing (if housing market is not a bubble, then very good for the long term)
3. JBF Industries
4. Shilpa Medical (risky, but can grow multiple fold)
5. Elecon Engineering
6. Central bank of India

Also, started to look at more technical information. What is the difference between Technical and Fundamental Analysis (very briefly) ?
Fundamental Analysis is the study of the fundamentals of the market. Fundamentals are all things that affect the supply and demand of the underlying commodity.
Technical Analysis, on the other hand, is the study of the market based on a chart of its price data, and assumes that you can do some amount of prediction of the price and volume movements based on past trends.

Labels: Economy, Equity, Fundamentals, Future, India, Learn, Market, Technical

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This post is about a tool available on the BSE website (link to actual tool) that allows you to find companies having a specific criteria. There are people who only want to invest in small size companies (betting on a higher quantum of risk), and there are others who want the safety of large caps. People also have criteria based on the EPS for the company (it tells you whether the company has a good return), and also the PE ratio (since a correlation between PE of a company and that of its industry indicates whether the company share price could increase).
You can select the following parameters:
LTP
Market Cap
EPS
PE
From the site:

This section will enable you to fine tune your search of stocks. Here you can search stocks based on the 4 fundamental parameters of the company's performance.

Labels: BSE, India, Parameters, Search, Stock

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We are approaching a stage where the market is seemingly over-heated. Quite a few mid-caps have shows levels that are 3-4 times what they were just a few months back, and even with improvements in the overall market, there is a sense of uneasiness. I was speaking to somebody who does deals (M&A), and he was of the opinion that this resurgence has already gone to promoters head, they are back to asking for high rates for their companies capital that was seen before the melt-down, and this was substantiated by a report in the Economic Times that claimed that deal makers are headed off to China rather than India since they do not see too many deals happening in India.
The US economic data seems better, but there are blips when the economic data seems to suggest that one needs to watch signs of recovery carefully, and not assume that everything will go fine. What this translates into for the retail investor is that you should be careful, do not start to again assume that stocks will only go up. If you have made a lot of profit, then remove some of that profit and put into safer instruments, and use the remainder to play in the market. One thing we learnt from last time is that there is no easily defined floor below which the market would not fall - it kept on falling for many months, and retail investors kept on waiting.
Stock that I am current tracking (or buying):
1. Rishi Lasers
2. KLG Systel
3. Supreme Industries
4. Patel Airtemp
5. Nilkamal
6. VST Tillers
7. Reliance (long term)

Labels: Economy, Equity, Future, India, Profit, Stock, US

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Overall, there is a mood of optimism. Even though exports have been falling, there is a feeling that it is only a matter of time for the market and the economy to be a upward trend. The plentiful rainfall of the past few weeks has reduced the rain shortfall this year to a much lower level, decreasing the potential problem caused by drought and lower drop output.
The Index of Industrial Production has gone up slightly, realty and consumer goods are starting to pick up, and so on. At the same time, the market has jumped to good heights in the last few months, and there is an over-whelming feeling that the market may be due for a correction, with a contra statement that times are going to be better, and the market is just factoring that in. At these times of high, it is good to get rid of junk and penny stocks.
Stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. Divis Laboratories (more stable, long term)
2. Jaihind Projects (more risky)
3. Nirlon (risky)
4. Unity Infra (risky)
5. Rishi Laser (long term)
6. Godrej Industries (short term)
7. Asahi India Glass

Labels: Equity, India, Indian, Opinion, Price, Shares, Stock

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If you look at what analysts are recommending (that is, if you believe what analysts have to say after the events of the past few months), then the recommendations are never simple. The overall market situation remains complex:
- The rainfall over the past few weeks has reduced the overall rainfall deficit for the year drastically, as a result, the Government is now feeling a lower negative impact on overall growth
- The market has gained over the past few months, to the extent that there is a feeling that the market is now over-heated and a correction is now impending. If you read economic and equity stories, you will hear about how stock are now seen as expensive, and that fund managers are feeling pressure to invest else they will feel left behind, even though they feel stocks are now expensive
- The overall world economy seems to have stabilised and seems to be on the road to recovery, and this has been stated by many top economists and others (even if some of them are trying to make optimistic projections, there is a touch of reality)
- In India, the IPO market has suffered a setback because 2 recent issues of Adani Power and NHPC did not leave any value for investors, and hence the stock is already below the issue price. At the same time, there are huge institutional investments into IPO's, signifying that money is available to invest.
With all this information, what should the retail investor do ? This is really not the time to take too much risk, so be careful about bringing fresh money into the equity market. I, am going to keep evaluating certain stocks to see whether there is potential to invest in these stocks, and also trying to sell a portion of other stocks that have jumped a lot.
1. Nirlon: This is a risky stock. If the market goes down, this stock also goes down. However, if the realty sector and commercial rents pick up, then Nirlon is a good stock to own.
2. Ashiana Housing. Another realty company. The company share has been oscillating for the past few days, and I am looking to own these shares for atleast a period of 1-3 years, and hence am picking up shares on a gradual basis.
3. Mawana Sugar. In India, sugar is a difficult area right now, with sugar being in shortfall and overseas price high because of expectations of imports by India.
4. Cairns. It's oil wells in Rajasthan have started producing oil, and on the back of a global recovery, there is an expectation that oil prices will start increasing to ever higher levels.
5. Sharyans resources. The company's share took a major hit with the economic downturn, but now looks to be again regaining hope.

Labels: Equity, Future, Stock

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For the last couple of days, the Indian stock market has not been reacting as one would have liked. After a good upward move on mid-cap stocks in the past few weeks, there has been a small correction in the last 2-3 days, with the market falling around 100-200 points per day. One can hope that this is just a consolidation phase. The overall trend for the future in terms of growth looks impressive, with GDP growth being higher than in previous quarters, although one has to worry about what the failure of the monsoon means for the country.
Mid-caps seem to be again the flavour of the season, and some of my mid-caps (risky ones though) have gained a bit in the last one month, atleast 15-30%, which is good growth. These are across sectors. Some of these stocks are:
Nirlon- This is a real estate story, with the company having developed some good commercial real estate, and if commercial rents pick up, then the company has a good story on its hands.
Ashiana Housing - the revival of the realty story means that well regarded companies do well, and Ashiana Housing is one of these companies. The company has gained from a low of 45 to currently 62.
Hindustan Constructions - The company has yet to gain significantly, but I am cautious about the long term prospects of the company.
JMC Projects - The company is doing well, and is a well regarded small player in the construction / engineering area
KLG Systel - The company has seen a massive fall in its valuations since January 2008, but is now on the recovery path, having increased to 2.5 times its value of last October. It is a well regarded provider of solutions to the Government.

Labels: Equity, Finance, India, Money, Stock

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The Indian projections in the short and medium term (6 months) for the stock market are in a bit of a flux. The US recession has been declared to be on its last legs by the Fed Chairman, Bernanke; however the facts on the ground are a bit uncertain. The housing market (where the entire problems started) seem to be looking up, but the same is certainly not true for the jobs market where the joblessness claims in the US have only gone up in the last couple of months, confounding experts who expected that signs of a recovery would come with fewer jobs getting lost.
Even other critical parameters such as consumer purchasing (critical for an economy like the US) are not delivering on the promise of a improved recovery. In addition, there is some real bad news coming out from China where the market has reacted pretty adversely, giving jitters to the market overall. However, and this is the most confusing part, it would seem that the markets worldwide (especially in the US and India) seem to be fore-casting a recovery in the next 6 months to 1 year.
In India, there are some reasons to be cautious about such a recovery, even though India never went into a recession; the growth got reduced, sentiment was very badly hurt, and the stock market had a literal collapse. Right now, the drought has complicated matters, and both the drought combined with the still increasing swine flu will knock a couple of points off the growth rate and cause severe jitters to the Government.
The time is not bad to make investments in some stocks, and here are some stocks that I am tracking:
Whirlpool - With more Indians entering the middle class, the growth rate of consumer appliances is only likely to go up in the long term, and Whirlpool is poised to join in that growth
Bartronics - The company had shown a lot of promise in the year 1998, but the crash had crushed any positive news of the company. However, now reports are increasing the prospects of the company being able to gain from projected boon in RFID usage
Companies in the infra-structure area will increase as the rate of GDP growth increases, even though there remain concerns about stretching themselves thin, and having working capital problems. Companies in this area include Gayathri Projects, Core Projects, Kalindi Rail, Hindustan Contstruction, Gujrat Apollo, Jaihind Projects, JMC Projects
I am also starting to evaluate more risky areas, such as when companies are seen as potential targets, and you get multiple companies fighting for these. There is some good short term money to be made if you can identify.

Labels: Economy, Equity, Future, GDP, Growth, India, Indian, Infrastructure, Investment, Stock

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