Tuesday, October 02, 2012

 

India stock market update - October 2, 2012

The gloom over the past couple of years have suddenly receded in the past couple of weeks. The scam hit Government was also losing the past few state elections, which further cost it more political capital. It would seem like that the political leadership of the Congress finally decided that the cost of not doing something was far more to the future of the Congress than any pressure that the allies would bring to bear on it. The prediction that, other than Mamta Banerjee, all the other allies could be brought in line because of various issues against them and their reluctance to face elections. And so the Government finally brought in reforms to project an improved image, to pick up some political capital, and though Mamta Banerjee went ahead of the expectations of the Congress by withdrawing support rather than just pushing for the resignation of her ministers, the Congress was assured of a majority that would still support them.
The market as expected welcomed the improvement in the air, also because there was no expectation of any such measures over the past many months; the market had come to expect that there would be ongoing policy paralysis and eventual reduction in the rating of the country and companies. The market as such has been seeing an increase in the index values and many shares that have been down-trodden have started climbing up from their yearly lows. However, there is a high amount of risk. The policies of the Government towards reform are not deep, nor are they because of any deep belief, especially since many members of the Congress are fearsome of the public backlash to the reform.
There is an improvement in engineering stocks, because of a belief that the economy will start improving, including in infrastructural, construction and other stocks. So for the short term, some risk can be worth it by investing in these stocks.
Reliance seems to be slowly recovering, although the share has been depressed for quite some time.
There are some other stocks that are worth investing in such as:
West Coast Paper
Weizman Forex
Tata Global Beverages
Godrej Industries
Zenith Fibres
Govind Rubber

Keep in mind that some of these stocks have already run up in the past few weeks, and there is a risk in buying into the equity market.

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Wednesday, June 01, 2011

 

Some tips for better and safer investing

• If the stock falls and you were expecting it to rise, drop it. Don't hold onto a stock just in terms of trying to average out something if you don't have confidence.
• Never trade with money you can't afford to lose. Don't take loans for the purpose of investing in the stock market.
• Always have a plan of action for your trading. People who have a plan and follow it (and modify the plan from time to time depending on the market situation) make more money from the stock market.
• Always follow your plan of action.
• Don't hold on to losing stock. It's termed as catching a falling knife, which can cause more damage to your investment.
• Even if your stock continues to rise, you should still sell in accordance with your plan.
• Don't hold on to winning stock longer than you planned; things can all too easily turn against you. Greed is something that needs to be controlled.
• Set a limit for how much you can afford to lose in a day. Use a stop loss judiciously.
• If you lose your limit, get up and walk away; stop trading. If you continue, you could even lose your shirt.
• Accept that you will lose money sometimes and be prepared.

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Thursday, January 13, 2011

 

India stock market update - 13 Jan 2011

It's been some time since I wrote in this blog, and things have changed a lot since then. The overall political environment in the country has taken a deep turn for the worse in the past couple of months, with scams affecting the image of the Government to a great degree, implicating the even honest image of the Prime Minister. Further, the economic and monetary policies seem to be moving in a direction that is not very conducive to growth, such as a high rate of inflation, and a result, the Reserve Bank seems to want to limit money supply by raising interest rates, which in turn will lead to a contraction in the amount of capital available for companies to finance their growth and lead to a reduction in the growth rate of many companies.
As a result of all this, and because there seems to be a slight positive movement in the economy of the United States, FII's seem to be selling in the domestic market, and are also repelled by the amount of the scams, which increases the perception of a high degree of corruption in India as a whole, something that is seem as harmful to the working of companies.
In the past 2-3 months, there has been a sharp fall in the value of mid-caps with many portfolios falling by 20-25%, a sharp drop that is not fully mirrored by the value of the Sensex. So what does one do about stocks ? If you believe (as I do) that in the next 2-3 years, there will be a continuing fast growth, then a drop in mid-caps and some large caps is a good opportunity to buy, so am tracking stocks such as:
1. Elecon Engineering
2. Reliance Industries
3. Bharti Airtel
4. Pipav Shipyards
5. Hindustan Construction

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Saturday, October 16, 2010

 

India stock market update as of 15 October 2010

Contrary to most expectations, the Indian stock market has been on a rise, going up and up. This is inspite of the fact that the most recent index of Industrial Production (for August) has seen a downturn (with the most recent rate being 5.5%, compared to a much higher level just a couple of months back). Further, the market has seen a huge influx of money from Foreign Institutional Investors, to the extent that the Government is contemplating putting some curbs on this inflow. The Sensex is reaching levels that were last seen in December 2007 - January 2008, and we all know what happened to the market after that.
Inspite of the fact that past statements of caution and doom seem to have been defeated by the market, we should continue to remain cautious and be careful with putting more money in the market. Stocks that remain fundamentally safe are fine to hold, but if there are stocks that have jumped up significantly, then cashing out for atleast a portion of such profits is the sensible approach. Some of the shares that I am currently tracking:
Western Shipyards
KNR Constructions
Action Construction Equipment
Coromandel Fertilizers
Andhra Sugar
Bajaj Finserve

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Thursday, September 23, 2010

 

India stock market update as of 23 September 2010

As predicted, the Indian stock market is becoming much more volatile. In the last couple of days, we have seen the usual conditions of volatility such as the large cap going up, while the middle caps have been extremely volatile. The Reserve Bank is predicting some increase in inflation, and hence has raised some of its rates by a small amount.
For the last many weeks, most retail investors have actually tried to increase their cash levels by selling out those scripts where there is a profit, and trying to stay on the sidelines in this volatility. This is what is recommended to most investors, unless they are confident of their involvement in the market, and about the script they are holding and can take the losses that may occur. At the same time, there is news about sugar scripts that may be worth buying, given some losses in sugar crops and a potential hardening of the prices.
Some scripts that I am actively tracking:
Voltas
United Phosphorus
Jyoti Limited
Punjab Woolcomber
Ponni Sugar

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Thursday, September 16, 2010

 

Indian stock market update as of 16 September 2010

The Indian stock market is getting very volatile nowadays. It reminds me of the days near January 2008 when the market was very volatile, with the Sensex going up by large numbers or falling, but with most stocks remaining where they were or sometimes even falling. There is still money to be made in specific scripts, but it is a high risk / high gain approach. If there is a fall due to liquidity inflow into the system being reduced, then even scripts that seem safe can fall pretty fast (we have seen the effect of what a reduction in liquidity and bad sentiment can do to all stocks in the multiple falls that happened in 2008). Right now, DII's (domestic financial institutions are selling) while FII's are pumping in money; but this inflow is always volatile. Every expert says a couple of things - India has a good economic growth ongoing, and Indian stocks are expensive. The possibility of a small sharp correction is pretty high right now, so be careful about the stocks that you are going in for.
There are positive news for the medium and long term - the figures for industrial growth were higher than expected, which means that Indian industry will pick up; at the same time, there will be a need for more credit and working capital, as a result, most predictions are that the Reserve Bank will increase interest rates to head off the expected increase in inflation.
Some stocks that I am currently tracking:
Reliance Industries - the stock remains a safe bet, and has shrugged off some recent weakness where there were predictions that the stock could fall to 600 levels
Uflex - the stock has run up sharply in the last couple of months, but the company remains a fundamentally good company in a good sector
Kirloskar Pneumatics - Run up a bit in the last 1 month
Rajesh Exports - Looking good technically
Rama Newsprint - A turnaround story
Shanti Gears
Cosmo Films

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Wednesday, September 08, 2010

 

Indian stock market update as of 08 September 2010

The market has been oscillating a bit in the past few weeks. After doing increases in the past few months, there is a lot of speculation that the market is over-heated, and it is only the inflowing liquidity that is causing the market to go up. At the same time, the Government and the economy are all giving positive signals for the overall condition of the economy, which boosts sentiment (although it must be admitted that all the sentiment is overall feeling that a crash is imminent and is healthy for the market).
The US economy seems to be taking a slight up for the better, and that is a good sign overall. The Indian economy needs to hear that the talk of a double-dip recession is not going to happen, and that things will remain good and that the Indian economy will continue to have a good rate of growth. If this continues, there will be periodic dips in the market but the overall trend will be positive, which is what the stock investors of the country need.
Some stocks that I am tracking:
Action Construction Equipment
Ashhiana Housing
Jindal Poly (has gone up hugely in the last few weeks, but some scope still remaining)
Rama Newsprint (more long term)
Talwarkars
Western India Shipyards

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