Monday, September 24, 2007

 

India stock market update 25 September 2007

Wow, what a ride. The market has fairly bounded up by leaps and bounds in the last few days, and is way over 16,500 not something that most people would have expected (they may have hoped, but not expected). Leading the charge is Reliance Industries, that has reached the dizzy levels of Rs. 2,300. Engineering companies are also taking advantage of this climb, with textiles and IT continuing to be way down.
Now the more important issue is about what to do now. There is a tremendous buzz in the market that such a climb is not sustainable, and even with additional liquidity in the market, a correction or profit-taking is inevitable; it's just that no one is willing to hazard a guess of what the correction will be like. I myself finally realized that some of the textile stocks that I have been holding on need to go; even though it is a contrarian principle to hold stocks that are down, I feel that this level of weakness of textiles will continue for some time.
I am also thinking of taking a major decision regarding the Infosys i hold. Infosys has been a huge disappointment, with almost no movement in the last 1 year; I would think that it has actually declined in the past year. Infosys over a 3 year return has under-performed the Sensex significantly, and with the pressure on the Rupee only growing, I really am not sure what the future of IT stocks is. Overall, even if a correction happens, the economy seems to be sound, and worth holding onto in the long term.
Stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. Ashiana Housing: Rs. 260
2. XL Telecom: Rs. 195
3. Yuken India: Rs. 265
4. Walchandnagar Industries: Rs. 4950 (this has run up significantly, so be careful)
5. Tata Teleservices: Rs. 41
6. Voltas: Rs. 161
7. Praj Industries: Rs. 235

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