Saturday, December 22, 2007

 

India Stock Market Update 22 Dec 2007

Very mixed signals the market is giving. It shows signs of weakness once you go above 20,000 and starts to decline to the 19,00 range, and then again shows sign of strength to climb again. And the trends seem to be similar, with the midcaps and small-caps being strong when at the 19k level; but as you reach above 20k, the mid-caps seem to try to fight the first day of decline. However, as the market remains weak, the mid-caps start to lose and can typically lose upto 10% or more before the weakness ends.
There are a number of factors that are pushed to show-case as to why the market should be weak - the yen unwinding (reduction of available zero cost vast sums of yens), the continuing sub-prime mortgage weakness in the US and the predictions of trillion dollar losses (in spite of the Fed declaring that it will reduce interest rates to pump in more dollars to fight the projected weakness), continuing thoughts of the US slipping into recession, political weakness in India (with the Left continuously pushing down the throat of Congress Government). So, there is a lot to be said for the bears. What are the factors in favour ? - Corporates seem to be still doing good even though there was a massive credit squeeze, there is a lot of liquidity in the global system and the equity marked in developing countries still seems like the best bet. In addition, the Government routinely makes the right noises by pushing for SEZ's and a few other points (although they still get beaten over the head by the Left on most of their initiatives).
So what are the stocks that I am currently tracking ?

1. Reliance Industries - Rs. 2719
2. Supreme Industries - Rs. 381
3. Nirlon (risky) - Rs. 114
4. KLG SYstel - Rs. 826
5. Khoday India (risky) - Rs. 291
6. Hindustan Constructions - Rs. 194
7. Gontermann Peipers (I) - Rs. 110
8. JMC Projects - Rs. 508
9. XL Telecom - Rs. 480

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