Sunday, February 25, 2007


Stock update 25 Feb 2007

The market has been going down and down for the past 1 week, and not is well below the 14k mark. It is not so low that a couple of days exubearance will not bring it back up, but there is a high degree of uncertainity in the market. People are mostly waiting on the sidelines, although there was one statistic that I saw which claimed that MF's and FII's are not selling, but they can take a decision anytime and no retail investor will be able to catch up with the speed their decisions.

A lot of retail investors would be wondering as to why they did not sell last week, before this drop happened. And as it so happens, even if the market drops by 5%, mid-caps will drop by more than 20-30% since they get impacted more at any selling impulse. At this point, there is a lot of pressure on realty stocks, as the rate hikes and statements by the Reserve Bank about an inflated property market are taking their toll. Is this temporary ? I would think realty will continue to increase again, and so next week, may take a look at some of the realty stocks such as Ansal Housing, Ashiana Housing, Unitech, Parsvnath, Mahindra Gesco, Peninsula, etc.

Some of the (few) stocks that I am currently tracking:

1. Bharti Airtel: Rs. 750
2. Allianz Securities: Rs. 60.60
3. Era Constructions: Rs. 382
4. Walchandnagar Industries: Rs. 1529
5. TRF: Rs. 519
6. Nucleus Software: Rs. 1107

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Sunday, February 18, 2007


Stock update 18 Feb 2007

It seems like that there is an under-current of fear in the market. This week's sudden crashes sort of had a reason, that is the rate increase by the Reserve Bank of India, but then there is no sudden reason for the upswing of Thursday. Thursday was a day that saw quite a few of my shares hitting Upper Circuit, and these were the same shares that had suddenly dropped by lower circuits in the previous days. These sudden bouts of volatility make no sense, unless you accept the contention that daily changes in the market (and specific stocks) are driven by sentiment, and long term price movements are driven by stock performance and economy movement.
I am a believer in the long term growth of the Indian stock market, and will remain invested; but the watchword is to be vigilant. This is a time when a person needs to take a quick call on their holdings to cash out in the event of sudden crashes; or else, if in for the long term, then can afford to be somewhat less vigilant.

Stocks that I am currently tracking:

1. Bajaj Auto: Rs. 3000
2. Infosys: Rs. 2382
3. IVRCL: Rs. 377
4. Reliance Capital: Rs. 717

No more as of now, just watching and observing.

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Thursday, February 15, 2007


Stock update 16 Feb 2007

The Indian stock market did yet another somersault, and after hesitating, and falling below the 14k mark, is now above it again, displaying handsome gains on Thursday (the 15th) and jumping above the 14,300 mark. This time the RBI was blamed for this sudden slump, with its decision to raise the CRR rates. This had the effect of sucking out more liquidity from the system, and was seen as the government being willing to sacrifice some amount of growth to control inflation. Inflation is seen as critical for the government. Realistically, a higher rate of inflation hurts the poor more, but an inflation rate of under 7-8% is statistically low for India. In the long term, a better growth rate is what will pull up everybody.
There is increasing disillusionment with reality stocks, and more advice is now coming to lock-out gains made in these stocks. I am somewhat of a mixed mind on this; after all, interest rates are going up, and these will make home loans more expensive, and depress demand. But with higher growth rates, demand for housing will only keep on increasing. And, sentiment in today's market does not necessary mean anything, since sentiment can quite literally turn around in a couple of days of trading.
I am pretty much done with hotel stocks for now, there have been long periods of no change, and my patience has come to an end.

Stocks that I am currently tracking:
1. Indiabulls - Rs. 422
2. Yes Bank - Rs. 150
3. Northgate - Rs. 1000
4. Infosys - Rs. 2410
5. Trigyn Technologies - Rs. 31.45

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Wednesday, February 07, 2007


Stock update 07 Feb 2007

The bumpy ride continues, but with an upward trend. Indian equitites had a good day on the 7th of February, and the sensex closed within kissing distance of 14,700. As always, predictions at this level (given past history) is that people are very careful of what they buy, and desist from being too speculative unless they are prepared to handle the risk. Stocks are at a high, and this is a good time to get out of stocks that seem speculative. And, with a twist, there are reports that FII's are buying in the market for the past few days, and that is an impulse to push the market sentiment up.

Some of the stocks that I am tracking are:

1. Jupiter Bioscience - Rs. 182 (more risky)
2. Garnet - Rs. 74 (more risky)
3. Voltas - Rs. 102
4. Northgate tech - Rs. 974
5. Surya Roshni - Rs. 73
6. Nucleus Software - Rs. 1013 (been jumping a lot already)
7. Futura Polyester - Rs. 28
8. Reliance Industries - Rs. 1393 (long term growth stock)

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Friday, February 02, 2007


Stock update 02 Feb 2007

The market seems to be going great guns. Hit the highest high in its history, and there is no telling what can happen. Sensex crossed the 14,400 mark, and yet in its high, there is an incredible amount of analysis that essentially states that it just cannot be so high. And to some extent, things are not the same as before. The sensex gyrates wildly, some days dropping 200 points, and recouping that within a couple of hours.
Some of the positives that seem to be driving this movement are a good sustained growth of the economy, good corporate results, and a hunger by FII's to invest in India. A negative is that the P/E levels are pretty high, and this results in a lot of doomsaying by experts who cannot believe this growth.
What can a person do ? It would be ideal to keep on locking profit in non-equity measures such as FD's, real estate, gold, or investing in some business. If you don't believe in all this, then a good way would be to setup a SIP for mutual fund investment on a regular basis. The one good point about Mutual Funds is that they promise (well, not a written promise) to give a FD beating return year on year, so if you invest a certain amount in a good fund, and leave it for a number of years, you can see the power of compounding.
This post is longer than usual, so let's get on with the stocks that I am tracking:

1. Zicom Electronic Security - Rs. 205 (not a short term gainer)
2. ANG Exports - Rs. 303
3. Trigyn Tech - Rs. 36
4. Accel Frontline - Rs. 104
5. Fluidomat - Rs. 16 (more risky)
6. Fortis Financial - Rs. 123
7. Kojam Fininvest - Rs. 229
8. JMC Projects - Rs. 265

There is a wonderful latin phrase "caveat emptor". Simple meaning - Let the buyer beware. Why this phrase here ? These stocks are not my research, I pick these up from what other people say, although I have a certain amount of confidence in listing these. But, anybody who buys stock based on a tip does so at his / her own risk.

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